This is the first percentages I've seen.

Branson warns of bird flu impact on air travel
Pandemic would ground up to 70 percent of aircraft, Virgin Group boss says

Laurent Gillieron / AP
Richard Branson, chairman and owner of the Virgin Group, said "statistically, there is about a 6 percent chance that in any one year of the next 10 years this becomes a person-to-person problem, and we just have to hope it is not this year."

View related photos

• A global threatJan. 26: CNBC's Maria Bartiromo talks with a panel at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland about the threat of avian flu.

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Updated: 8:28 p.m. ET Jan. 26, 2006

DAVOS, Switzerland - A human bird flu pandemic could ground up to 70 percent of aircraft, Virgin Group boss Richard Branson said on Thursday.

"You're just going to have to be strong enough to keep your head down for a year," the entrepreneur behind Virgin Atlantic Airways and other carriers told business leaders at the World Economic Forum in Davos.

"If it happens, an airline is going to have 50 percent of its planes grounded, maybe more — 60, 70 percent," he said.

The only positive would be a fall in fuel costs: "It will certainly bring down oil prices with a thump."

Air travel is expected to be in the frontline should the H5N1 strain of bird flu become easily transmitted between people.

Air travel was crucial in spreading the deadly Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, or SARS, virus around Asia and to Canada in 2003.

"Statistically, there is about a 6 percent chance that in any one year of the next 10 years this becomes a person-to-person problem, and we just have to hope it is not this year," Branson said.

Virgin has purchased enough doses of the antiviral drug Tamiflu for all airline employees at the group in an attempt to protect them in the event of a pandemic.

U.N. may use 'flu-casters' if pandemic strikes
Information, developments could be provided to TV networks via satellite

RELATED COVERAGE
• Q&A: Bird flu Timeline
• What you need to know
• Bird flu vs. common flu
• Images from around the world
• Complete coverage of bird flu

Updated: 6:35 a.m. ET Jan. 30, 2006

DAVOS, Switzerland - The United Nations is considering using “flu-casters”, modeled on television weather forecasters, to publicize vital information if a global flu pandemic strikes.
They could broadcast latest developments from emergency-response facilities at the U.N.’s World Health Organization in Geneva, according to David Nabarro, the U.N.’s top influenza coordinator.
“The flu-casters would draw out the maps and keep people engaged at regular intervals ... beaming it from the WHO bunker,” Nabarro told Reuters in an interview at the World Economic Forum in Davos.

The WHO’s Geneva bunker, a $5 million facility built in a former cinema, is the world’s nerve-center for tracking bird flu and other deadly diseases.
The room will become a global command center if the H5N1 bird flu virus, which has killed at least 83 people in Asia since 2003, mutates into a form which spreads easily among humans and sparks a flu pandemic which could kill millions.

The screen-filled bunker could link the “flu-casters” with TV networks via satellite feeds.
Nabarro was speaking as the United Nations analyzed results from a top-level catastrophe simulation to set policies that envisage governments, companies and the media working together to fight a global flu pandemic.

The exercise has produced surprising conclusions that could prove key should the disease start to spread quickly among humans.

Higher priorityOne of the most important conclusions was that maintaining infrastructure -- water, power and the provision of food --could take a higher priority than providing care to the sick, Nabarro told Reuters.

“It is maybe even more important to concentrate on the essentials of life for those who are living than it is to focus on the treatment of those who are sick,” he said. “We learned a lot.”

A pandemic could see travel and trade halted, workers forced to stay home, schools closed and a number of other dramatic measures designed to limit the spread.

The U.N. aims to forge fixed partnerships with key actors who would be involved in any pandemic response effort, which would include community groups, aid groups like the Red Cross, businesses and the media, Nabarro said.

“The focus on business is important. They have skills and can do things that governments cannot,” he said. Clear communications would also be crucial.

The simulation assumed that the world was 40 days into the outbreak of a deadly pandemic.

“What became clear to us was, if we don’t work together effectively and get prepared, we will be badly hit by that pandemic,” he said.

The pandemic preparations will call for novel approaches if officials are to limit the potential catastrophic damage -- such as the use of mobile phone technology to distribute questionnaires and information, Nabarro said.

Nabarro also warned there was still a lot of work to be done in the event of an outbreak.
“Governments are starting to realize that they are nowhere near prepared for the damage that it could cause,” he said at a panel discussion.

Getting Ready for Pandemic Influenza

[Note from Bob: Read the following with the idea in mind that on the 80th day (yes the 80th day!) of a pandemic in Seattle, it is estimated that 9,000 intensive care beds will be required. From what I have read, the flu will probably come in three waves, each lasting weeks. 50% of the people infected probably will not be very sick, but 40% of the work force will either be sick or stay home to take care of the sick, or just plain afraid to go out. Estimates range up to 2,000,000 deaths in the U.S. alone. This is VERY SERIOUS ... please think this through ... it could be THE event of this century ... disrupting everything in our lives.

Also, I think we need to think of this thing in two ways...the temporal preparation...and the spiritual preparation. It will be no good to be totally prepared temporally, if spiritually we are bereft of faith.]

When preparing for a possible emergency situation such as pandemic influenza, it's best to think first about the basics of survival, including fresh water, food, clean air and warmth. Because it may be necessary to protect yourself and others from contracting the virus, you may have to remain in your home for several days. The checklist below contains certain items that may be especially important if you cannot leave your home and people cannot enter.

Food and water - Be sure to have several days to a week's supply of canned/dried food and water on hand and a can opener. Grocery stores may not have adequate supplies or staff available to remain open. Don't forget baby formula and diapers. Basic utilities such as electricity or water may experience disruptions.

Medications, First Aid Kit and equipment - If you must take medications on a regular basis, be sure to have an adequate supply to last the duration of your stay.

Blankets - Ensure that you have plenty of warm blankets on hand in case of electricity disruptions.

Phone - If there are disruptions to power, you will require a telephone (standard wired phone) that does not run on power from an electrical outlet. Cell phones may operate when the power is out, but wireless phones will not.

Battery powered radio with extra batteries

Flashlight with extra batteries

Items for personal comfort - Items such as soap, shampoo, toothpaste, facial and bathroom tissue should be on hand to make your time at home more comfortable. Be sure to include items for children such as coloring books, games and activities.

Face and nose protection - Face masks should be available for each member of the family to prevent the spread of disease. Dense-weave cotton material that snugly covers your nose and mouth and is specifically fit for each member of the family. Do whatever you can to make the best fit possible for children. There are also a variety of face masks readily available in hardware stores.

Large trash bags and ties - Large trash bags should be kept on hand to store garbage safely because garbage service may be disrupted or postponed for many days.

Pets - Ensure you have plenty of food, water or litter available for your pets.

Emergency Plan - Take the time to prepare a family emergency plan. Record medical histories, social security numbers and contact information on the Kentucky Community Information Pocket Guide. Ensure your children and family members know who to contact in an emergency. Don't forget to check in on your neighbors and the elderly in your community.

The Seven Major Mistakes in Food Storage

By Vicki Tate - (from www.beprepared.com)

A month or two ago I met a cute little gal who was talking to me about her newly begun food storage. "You know," she began, "I've dreaded doing my storage for years, it seems so blah, but the way national events are going my husband and I decided we couldn't put it off anymore. And do you know, it really hasn't been so hard. We just bought 20 bags of wheat, my husband found a place to get 60 pound cans of honey, and now all we have to do is get a couple of cases of powdered milk. Could you tell me where to get the milk?" After I suggested several distributors, I asked, "Do you know how to cook with your wheat? "Oh," she laughed, "if we ever need it I'll learn how. My kids only like white bread and I don't have a wheat grinder." She had just made every major mistake in storing food (other than not storing anything at all). But she's not alone, through 14 years of helping people prepare, I found most people's storage starts looking just like hers. So what's wrong with this storage plan? There are seven serious problems that may occur trying to live on these basics:

1. Variety - Most people don't have enough variety in their storage. Ninety five percent of the people I've worked with have only stored the four basic items we mentioned earlier: wheat, milk, honey, and salt. Statistics show most of us won't survive on such a diet for several reasons.

a. Many people are allergic to wheat and may not be aware of it until they are eating it meal after meal.

b. Wheat is too harsh for young children. They can tolerate it in small amounts but not as their main staple.

c. We get tired of eating the same foods over and over and many times prefer to not eat, than to sample that particular food again. This is called appetite fatigue. Young children and older people are particularly susceptible to it. Store less wheat than is generally suggested and put the difference into a variety of other grains, particular ones your family likes to eat. Also store a variety of beans. This will add variety of color, texture and flavor. Variety is the key to a successful storage program. It is essential that you store flavorings such as tomato, bouillon, cheese, and onion.

Also, include a good supply of the spices you like to cook with. These flavorings and spices allow you to do many creative things with your grains and beans. Without them you are severely limited. One of the best suggestions I can give you is buy a good food storage cookbook, go through it, and see what your family would really eat. Notice the ingredients as you do it. This will help you more than anything else to know what items to store.

2. Extended Staples - Few people get beyond storing the four basic items but it's extremely important that you do so. Never put "all your eggs in one basket." Store dehydrated and/or freeze dried foods as well as home canned and "store bought" canned goods. Make sure you add cooking oil, shortening, baking powder, soda, yeast and powdered eggs. You can't cook even the most basic recipes without these items. Because of limited space I won't list all the items that should be included in a well-balanced storage program. They are included in the "The New Cookin With Home Storage" cookbook, as well as information on how much to store, and where to purchase it.

3. Vitamins - Vitamins are important, especially if you have children, since children do not store body reserves of nutrients as adults do. A good quality multi-vitamin and vitamin C are the most vital. Others might be added as your budget permits.

4. Quick and Easy and "Psychological Foods" - Quick and easy foods help you through times when you are psychologically or physically unable to prepare your basic storage items. "No cook" foods such as freeze-dried are wonderful since they require little preparation, MRE's (Meal Ready to Eat), such as many preparedness outlets carry, canned goods, etc. are also very good. "Psychological Foods" are the `goodies' - Jello, pudding, candy, etc. - you should add to your storage.

These may sound frivolous, but through the years I've talked with many people who have lived entirely on their storage for extended periods of time. Nearly all of them say these were the most helpful items in their storage to "normalize" their situations and make it more bearable. These are especially important if you have children.

5. Balance - Time and time again I've seen families buy all of their wheat, then buy all of another item and so on. Don't do that. It's important to keep well-balanced as you build your storage. Buy several items, rather than a large quantity of one item. If something happens and your have to live on your present storage, you'll fare much better having one month supply of a variety of items than a year's supply of two or three items.

6. Containers - Always store your bulk foods in food storage containers. I have seen literally tons and tons of food thrown away because they were left in sacks, where they became highly susceptible to moisture, insects, and rodents. If you are using plastic buckets make sure they are lined with a food grade plastic liner available from companies that carry packaging supplies. Never use trash can liners as these are treated with pesticides. Don't stack them too high. In an earthquake they may topple, the lids pop open, or they may crack. A better container is the #10 tin can which most preparedness companies use when they package their foods.

7. Use Your Storage - In all the years I've worked with preparedness, one of the biggest problems I've seen is people storing food and not knowing what to do with it. It's vital that you and your family become familiar with the things you are storing. You need to know how to prepare these foods. This is not something you want to have to learn under stress. Your family needs to be used to eating these foods. A stressful period is not a good time to totally change your diet. Get a good food storage cookbook and learn to use these foods!

It's easy to solve the food storage problems once you know what they are. The lady I talked about at the beginning of the article left realizing what she had stored was a good beginning but not enough as she said, "It's better to find out the mistakes I've made now while there's still time to make corrections. This makes a lot more sense."

If you're one who needs to make some adjustments, that is OK. Look at these suggestions and add the things you're needing. It's easy to take a basic storage and add the essential items to make it livable, but it needs to be done. As I did the research for my cookbook, I wanted to include recipes that gave help to families no matter what they stored. As I put the material together it was fascinating for me to learn what the pioneers ate are the type of things we store. If you have stored only the basics, there's very, very little you can do with it. By adding even just a few things it greatly increases your options, and the prospect of your family surviving on it. As I studied how the pioneers lived and ate, my whole feeling for food storage changed. I realized our "storage" is what most of the world has always lived on. If it's put together the right way we will be returning to good basic foods with a few goodies thrown in.

This photo, courtesy of the Otis Historical Archives of the National Museum of Health & Medicine, shows what is probably the interior of the old Kansas Building at Camp Funston during the height of the epidemic. This is where the influenza is believed to have started.

1918 Flu Pandemic

The influenza pandemic of 1918-1919 killed more people than the Great War, known today as World War I (WWI), at somewhere between 20 and 40 million people. It has been cited as the most devastating epidemic in recorded world history. More people died of influenza in a single year than in four-years of the Black Death Bubonic Plague from 1347 to 1351. Known as "Spanish Flu" or "La Grippe" the influenza of 1918-1919 was a global disaster.

The Grim Reaper by Louis Raemaekers

In the fall of 1918 the Great War in Europe was winding down and peace was on the horizon. The Americans had joined in the fight, bringing the Allies closer to victory against the Germans. Deep within the trenches these men lived through some of the most brutal conditions of life, which it seemed could not be any worse. Then, in pockets across the globe, something erupted that seemed as benign as the common cold. The influenza of that season, however, was far more than a cold. In the two years that this scourge ravaged the earth, a fifth of the world's population was infected. The flu was most deadly for people ages 20 to 40. This pattern of morbidity was unusual for influenza which is usually a killer of the elderly and young children. It infected 28% of all Americans (Tice). An estimated 675,000 Americans died of influenza during the pandemic, ten times as many as in the world war. Of the U.S. soldiers who died in Europe, half of them fell to the influenza virus and not to the enemy (Deseret News). An estimated 43,000 servicemen mobilized for WWI died of influenza (Crosby). 1918 would go down as unforgettable year of suffering and death and yet of peace. As noted in the Journal of the American Medical

Association final edition of 1918:

"The 1918 has gone: a year momentous as the termination of the most cruel war in the annals of the human race; a year which marked, the end at least for a time, of man's destruction of man; unfortunately a year in which developed a most fatal infectious disease causing the death of hundreds of thousands of human beings. Medical science for four and one-half years devoted itself to putting men on the firing line and keeping them there. Now it must turn with its whole might to combating the greatest enemy of all--infectious disease," (12/28/1918).

An Emergency Hospital for Influenza Patients

The effect of the influenza epidemic was so severe that the average life span in the US was depressed by 10 years. The influenza virus had a profound virulence, with a mortality rate at 2.5% compared to the previous influenza epidemics, which were less than 0.1%. The death rate for 15 to 34-year-olds of influenza and pneumonia were 20 times higher in 1918 than in previous years (Taubenberger). People were struck with illness on the street and died rapid deaths. One anectode shared of 1918 was of four women playing bridge together late into the night.

Overnight, three of the women died from influenza (Hoagg). Others told stories of people on their way to work suddenly developing the flu and dying within hours (Henig). One physician writes that patients with seemingly ordinary influenza would rapidly "develop the most viscous type of pneumonia that has ever been seen" and later when cyanosis appeared in the patients, "it is simply a struggle for air until they suffocate," (Grist, 1979). Another physician recalls that the influenza patients "died struggling to clear their airways of a blood-tinged froth that sometimes gushed from their nose and mouth," (Starr, 1976). The physicians of the time were helpless against this powerful agent of influenza. In 1918 children would skip rope to the rhyme

(Crawford):

I had a little bird,
Its name was Enza.
I opened the window,
And in-flu-enza.

The influenza pandemic circled the globe. Most of humanity felt the effects of this strain of the influenza virus. It spread following the path of its human carriers, along trade routes and shipping lines. Outbreaks swept through North America, Europe, Asia, Africa, Brazil and the South Pacific (Taubenberger). In India the mortality rate was extremely high at around 50 deaths from influenza per 1,000 people (Brown). The Great War, with its mass movements of men in armies and aboard ships, probably aided in its rapid diffusion and attack. The origins of the deadly flu disease were unknown but widely speculated upon. Some of the allies thought of the epidemic as a biological warfare tool of the Germans. Many thought it was a result of the trench warfare, the use of mustard gases and the generated "smoke and fumes" of the war. A national campaign began using the ready rhetoric of war to fight the new enemy of microscopic proportions. A study attempted to reason why the disease had been so devastating in certain localized regions, looking at the climate, the weather and the racial composition of cities. They found humidity to be linked with more severe epidemics as it "fosters the dissemination of the bacteria," (Committee on Atmosphere and Man, 1923). Meanwhile the new sciences of the infectious agents and immunology were racing to come up with a vaccine or therapy to stop the epidemics.

The experiences of people in military camps encountering the influenza pandemic:

An excerpt for the memoirs of a survivor at Camp Funston of the pandemic Survivor
A letter to a fellow physician describing conditions during the influenza epidemic at Camp Devens

A collection of letters of a soldier stationed in Camp Funston Soldier
The origins of this influenza variant is not precisely known. It is thought to have originated in China in a rare genetic shift of the influenza virus. The recombination of its surface proteins created a virus novel to almost everyone and a loss of herd immunity. Recently the virus has been reconstructed from the tissue of a dead soldier and is now being genetically characterized.

The name of Spanish Flu came from the early affliction and large mortalities in Spain (BMJ,10/19/1918) where it allegedly killed 8 million in May (BMJ, 7/13/1918). However, a first wave of influenza appeared early in the spring of 1918 in Kansas and in military camps throughout the US. Few noticed the epidemic in the midst of the war. Wilson had just given his 14 point address. There was virtually no response or acknowledgment to the epidemics in March and April in the military camps. It was unfortunate that no steps were taken to prepare for the usual recrudescence of the virulent influenza strain in the winter. The lack of action was later criticized when the epidemic could not be ignored in the winter of 1918 (BMJ, 1918). These first epidemics at training camps were a sign of what was coming in greater magnitude in the fall and winter of 1918 to the entire world.

The war brought the virus back into the US for the second wave of the epidemic. It first arrived in Boston in September of 1918 through the port busy with war shipments of machinery and supplies. The war also enabled the virus to spread and diffuse. Men across the nation were mobilizing to join the military and the cause. As they came together, they brought the virus with them and to those they contacted. The virus killed almost 200,00 in October of 1918 alone. In November 11 of 1918 the end of the war enabled a resurgence. As people celebrated Armistice Day with parades and large partiess, a complete disaster from the public health standpoint, a rebirth of the epidemic occurred in some cities. The flu that winter was beyond imagination as millions were infected and thousands died. Just as the war had effected the course of influenza, influenza affected the war. Entire fleets were ill with the disease and men on the front were too sick to fight. The flu was devastating to both sides, killing more men than their own weapons could.

With the military patients coming home from the war with battle wounds and mustard gas burns, hospital facilities and staff were taxed to the limit. This created a shortage of physicians, especially in the civilian sector as many had been lost for service with the military. Since the medical practitioners were away with the troops, only the medical students were left to care for the sick. Third and forth year classes were closed and the students assigned jobs as interns or nurses (Starr,1976). One article noted that "depletion has been carried to such an extent that the practitioners are brought very near the breaking point," (BMJ, 11/2/1918). The shortage was further confounded by the added loss of physicians to the epidemic. In the U.S., the Red Cross had to recruit more volunteers to contribute to the new cause at home of fighting the influenza epidemic. To respond with the fullest utilization of nurses, volunteers and medical supplies, the Red Cross created a National Committee on Influenza. It was involved in both military and civilian sectors to mobilize all forces to fight Spanish influenza (Crosby, 1989). In some areas of the US, the nursing shortage was so acute that the Red Cross had to ask local businesses to allow workers to have the day off if they volunteer in the hospitals at night (Deseret News). Emergency hospitals were created to take in the patients from the US and those arriving sick from overseas.

The pandemic affected everyone. With one-quarter of the US and one-fifth of the world infected with the influenza, it was impossible to escape from the illness. Even President Woodrow Wilson suffered from the flu in early 1919 while negotiating the crucial treaty of Versailles to end the World War (Tice). Those who were lucky enough to avoid infection had to deal with the public health ordinances to restrain the spread of the disease. The public health departments distributed gauze masks to be worn in public. Stores could not hold sales, funerals were limited to 15 minutes. Some towns required a signed certificate to enter and railroads would not accept passengers without them. Those who ignored the flu ordinances had to pay steep fines enforced by extra officers (Deseret News). Bodies pilled up as the massive deaths of the epidemic ensued. Besides the lack of health care workers and medical supplies, there was a shortage of coffins, morticians and gravediggers (Knox). The conditions in 1918 were not so far removed from the Black Death in the era of the bubonic plague of the Middle Ages.

In 1918-19 this deadly influenza pandemic erupted during the final stages of World War I.

Nations were already attempting to deal with the effects and costs of the war. Propaganda campaigns and war restrictions and rations had been implemented by governments. Nationalism pervaded as people accepted government authority. This allowed the public health departments to easily step in and implement their restrictive measures. The war also gave science greater importance as governments relied on scientists, now armed with the new germ theory and the development of antiseptic surgery, to design vaccines and reduce mortalities of disease and battle wounds. Their new technologies could preserve the men on the front and ultimately save the world. These conditions created by World War I, together with the current social attitudes and ideas, led to the relatively calm response of the public and application of scientific ideas. People allowed for strict measures and loss of freedom during the war as they submitted to the needs of the nation ahead of their personal needs. They had accepted the limitations placed with rationing and drafting. The responses of the public health officials reflected the new allegiance to science and the wartime society. The medical and scientific communities had developed new theories and applied them to prevention, diagnostics and treatment of the influenza patients.

Turkey Reports Fourth Bird Flu Death

Jan. 16, 2006

Hazal, the mother of Turkish girl Fatma Ozcan, 12, the fourth suspected death from bird flu, cries next to her daughter's coffin as she leaves the hospital of Van, eastern Turkey, Sunday, Jan. 15, 2006. (CBS)

Fast Fact

The H5N1 strain of bird flu has ravaged flocks in at least 16 countries, mostly in eastern Asia, since late 2003 and has started spreading to eastern Europe. The World Health Organization has confirmed 78 human deaths from the disease worldwide.

(CBS/AP) Health authorities said Monday that preliminary tests confirmed that a 12-year-old girl who died was infected with the deadly H5N1 strain of bird flu, raising Turkey's death toll to four and the number of human cases in the country to 20. Fatma Ozcan died Sunday in the eastern city of Van, but initial tests had been negative for H5N1. The Health Ministry ordered a new round of tests after her 5-year-old brother, Muhammet, tested positive Sunday, and officials said those confirmed she was infected. Five patients had been discharged from hospitals as of Monday afternoon, leaving only 11 still in treatment, the ministry said. It said all but one of those patients were listed in stable condition. Authorities hastily buried Fatma on Sunday evening, wrapping her in a special body bag to contain any virus, following a quick prayer by torchlight at a snow-covered cemetery. She was from Dogubayazit, the same town where three siblings died of bird flu about 10 days ago. Her brother was being treated for fever and a light lung infection, officials said. A new viral specimen that had been taken from the girl's lungs was analyzed at a laboratory in Ankara, Hurrem Bodur, an infectious disease expert at Ankara University, told private NTV television. In other recent developments:

Turkey said Monday that it has destroyed 764,000 fowl in its fight to contain the bird flu outbreak, with the slaughter focused on the 29 of Turkey's 81 provinces where bird flu in fowl was either confirmed or suspected. As the Cabinet met to discuss further measures to combat the outbreak, authorities on Monday banned the transport of all birds and hoofed animals, except race horses, as a precaution.

Japan will cull another 770,000 birds after authorities detected what is probably a mild form of the bird flu virus at a farm in northern Japan, an official said Monday. A virus of the H5 strain was detected among chickens at Moriya farm in Ibaraki, about 65 miles north of Tokyo, the prefecture said in a statement.

The Russian government will fly home more than 8,000 hajj pilgrims who had traveled to Mecca via Turkish provinces hit by bird flu to avoid subjecting them to further risk of contracting the deadly virus, a lawmaker who organized the trip said Monday. The pilgrims will undergo thorough medical examinations upon arrival, lawmaker Akhmed Bilalov said, citing the country's chief epidemiologist. At least 77 others in east and south Asia have died since the virus first surfaced there in 2003, the World Health Organization says. The WHO has confirmed only two of the four Turkish deaths, but it has been tracking the outbreak closely to determine whether the virus is changing. Experts are concerned that the virus could mutate into a form that would spread easily among humans, triggering a pandemic capable of killing millions. Turkish health experts, however, have said all 20 cases in Turkey appeared to have involved people who either touched or played with infected birds, and the WHO said it had no evidence of person-to-person infection. Although five H5N1 patients have been discharged, one was readmitted as a precaution on Monday, two days after her release from a hospital in the central Anatolian city of Sivas. Gulsen Yesilirmak's doctor, Nazif Elaldi, said it was normal for her to have some ongoing problems and insisted she had recovered. Health authorities on Monday discharged a 6-year-old girl who was hospitalized on suspicion of bird flu, saying she suffered only from a throat infection, reports said. She had been hospitalized in Istanbul with a high fever after reportedly playing with chickens in her hometown of Pinarhisar, about 40 miles from the border with Bulgaria.

HAS THE DANGER PASSED?

Not by a long shot.

China continues to defy the rest of the world as she refuses
to comply with WHO requests to release H5N1 samples. This
is nothing new for China. She continues to deny there is a
problem, insisting that only 2 or 3 people in the entire
country have died from H5N1. Underground reports coming
out of this country claim that hundreds of people have been
stricken and killed by the virus, which would certainly
raise the WHO pandemic rating from its current 3 to level 4.

Unfortunately, WHO has no authority to enter a country and
conduct independent surveys and tests unless invited by the
host country. And it bases it's pandemic rating on
information provided by the health officials at the
diplomatic level.

Of course it's no surprise that China continues to stonewall
WHO and the rest of the world. She did the same thing with
SARS, nearly bringing the planet to its knees. If she
admitted that clusters of humans were becoming infected and
dying it would destroy her economy as every trading partner
would put an instant embargo on all goods coming out of that
country.

In the meantime she still absurdly clings to the notion that
she'll be able to stave off the threat by vaccinating her 14
billion domestic chickens, ducks, and geese -- a hopelessly
impossible task.
There has also been a worrying development in the spread of
bird flu. Three children in Turkey have died from the virus.
These are the first fatalities from the virus outside of Southeast
Asia as the disease is spreading into the outskirts of Europe.
You can view the story on this video link from Sky News:
http://www.sky.com/skynews/video/videoplayer/0,,31200-birdflu_p273,00.html
Take special note of the man who is putting dead birds in
the white garbage bags -- he is wearing a face mask with his
nose completely exposed! And no gloves. This is NOT the way
to deal with a deadly virus!
And please, please, Robert, if you haven't stocked up on
face masks, time may be running short. Many who bought the Nanomask 3 months ago are only now starting to receive their
orders. As people start dying, masks will be impossible to obtain.
We are now entering the most dangerous period in the
Northern Hemisphere. The regular flu that goes around every
year is at its height, providing the H5N1 virus with the
opportunity to combine and re-sort genes which may result in
the emergence of a new killer strain for which we will have
no defence. It is no time to let our guards down.
========================================

ONE MAN'S PLAN

The following was posted on our Bird Flu Forum by Bill
Love. It is reproduced here with his permission.
Please feel free to visit the forum at
http://www.survivetheflu.com/phpBB/index.php and add
your own thoughts.

To protect yourself and your family from the possible bird
flu pandemic, one must make and carry out a plan. This plan
depends upon 1) what you imagine will happen and 2) where
you live.

1. What will happen to society if a full-blown pandemic of
the bird flu hits the world and specifically the city where
you live? If (big if) the bird flu spreads like the common
cold or normal flu, then we can count on a large percentage
of the population catching the flu. If 20% or 30% or 40% or
50% of those who get the flu do actually die, then our
society will face terrible problems. It is how we deal with
these terrible problems that will determine who lives and
who doesn't.

If 50% of the population catches the flu, and 50% of these
die, then we have about 25% of the population wiped out. How
will this affect society?

We know the health and medical systems will be overloaded
and will possibly break down completely. We know that
probably the transportation systems will fail as communities
try to isolate themselves. This means trucking will either
be a minimum or stop completely. No incoming food, no
incoming gasoline, no mail, no commercial goods. Food
shortages could become a major problem - everybody has to
eat. We know law enforcement could be spotty or not at all.
Gangs or individuals will be forced to search and loot for
food. Those who have food may have to fight to defend their
families and their supplies. I would guess the power grid
would stay operating for a while, depending on if the
operators get sick or if looters try to crash the system
just to cause more confusion.

So, as many experts say. WE MUST FEND FOR OURSELVES.

Where you live will determine what plans you make. I live in
the country, get water from my own well, heat my house with
firewood, and am fairly isolated. For those who have
apartments in the city or own a home in a crowded
neighborhood, well..... good luck. Your problems are very
difficult.

Here are some of my ideas:

You don't want to catch the flu in the first place. The
only reasonable defence is to isolate yourself and your
family with ruthless determination. You must be very
watchful of the spread of the flu. When it moves into your
state or community, you must take your family and close out
everyone else. Quit school, quit your job, whatever it
takes. But don't catch the flu.
If you must interact with people, wear face mask, wear rubber
gloves, wear goggles, wear plastic shower cap over hair, and
protective clothing. Carry a small can of Lysol spray or make
up a small spray bottle of dilute Clorox to clean hands or
objects you must touch.

Living with your family in total isolation is difficult, but
not impossible if you are prepared. Having enough water and
food is the major problem. You must have a source of water
or store up enough water to last 4 - 6 months. There are
many ways of obtaining decent drinking and cleaning water.
If there is ANY water nearby, a good family water filter,
obtained at any good camping store, will filter virtually
all impurities from ditch water. Large plastic sheets,
obtained from builder's supply, can be placed on the ground
during rain storms to collect fresh rainwater. Water from a
well can be obtained even if the power is off. Open up the
well, pull up the pump and pipes. Then you have a 6 inch
pipe with clean water located about 50 ft. down. You can
drop down weighted cans on a string, then pull them up full
of water. If you have a well, you must have a generator to
supply power to run your pump. Most water pumps are 220
volts, so your generator must supply 220 volts to get you
any water. To store water, you need some large containers.
55 gallon drums, tops cut out, and lined with plastic drum
liners (from Lowe's) are cheap and hold lots of water, but
you have to have space. Large plastic garbage containers can
hold water. Galvanized garbage cans, old hot water heaters,
bath tubs, are all useful to store water. I have 2 unused
garden sprayers devoted to clean water. Garden sprayers hold
about 2 gallons and can be pressurized to spray water. Use
these to wash dishes, take a shower, as a fire extinguisher,
or other applications where water under pressure is handy.
Put cold water in one and hot water in the other.

Food is the second major problem. If you eat two meals per
day for 6 months, that is 360 meals per person. That is lots
of food. We will all lose some weight.
I have two categories of food: deep storage food - cheap
food which I can store for years and is always there if we
need it. Everyday food - is more our normal diet, canned
food primarily and some frozen food.

For deep storage food, one must have some means of keeping
the food dry, cool, and free of pests. I like 1-gallon glass
jugs best, but they are almost impossible to get. Next, I
use new, unused 1-gallon paint cans which can be purchased
at paint stores (call around for prices - they vary quite a
bit). Prices are less than $1 each. Cans can rust, but the
insides are quite clean and OK for dry foods.
I generally like rice, oatmeal, cornmeal, grits, elbow
macaroni, popcorn, pinto beans, green split peas, black-eye
peas, navy beans, sugar, salt, corn meal, flour, dried milk,
dry potato flakes, instant pancake mix and any other dried
foods. A 1-gallon can holds about 7 pounds of rice.

For everyday canned foods, you must make a rotation system
or your cans will go bad in a few years. When I come home
from the grocery store, I use a magic marker to put the
month and year date on the top of each can I store. When I
need food, I select the oldest cans to use. Some kinds of
foods store much longer than others. Tomatoes and pineapple
have lots of acid and eat through cans in a couple of years.
I have a supply of tuna, salmon (cheap source of protein -
mixed with lots of rice makes a good soup), hash, canned
chicken, canned ham, canned turkey, treat (spam), chilli,
and beef stew. Canned green beans, green peas, pork and
beans, baked beans, carrots, potatoes, creamed and kernel
corn, peaches, fruit cocktail, pineapple, applesauce (in
jars), red kidney beans, tomato, and squash. In addition,
mayo, catsup, mustard, hot sauce, black pepper, peanut
butter, jellies, syrup, Crisco, canola oil, condensed milk,
soft drinks, beer, liquor, coffee, and creamer.

If power goes off, lights are necessary. Some lighting
ideas:
Candles are cheap, but somewhat dangerous. I collect old wax
and broken candles to melt down to make candles in jars or
cans.
Old oil lamps are cheap and can be gotten from Wal-Mart for
about $6. Lamp oil or kerosene will run a lamp for a long
time, but there is always a danger of fire. I have a lamp
for every room in my house, just to provide enough
illumination to see without having to carry a flashlight.
I purchased some solar-powered outside lights which you put
outside in the sunshine for several hours, then they burn
most of the night. These are nice and make no flames.
If you have 12 volt auto batteries or even better, 12 volt
deep charge batteries, you can run larger lights available
at any good RV supply.
With a deep charge 12 volt battery, you can also run a small
TV set to keep up with the news or amuse the kids. Being
without TV when the power is out will be hard for everyone.

Enough for now. This is already too long.

UPDATE ON FACE MASKS
We are now offering a great price on the Alpha Pro Tech
N95 Respirator which is in stock and shipping within 72
hours of receiving your order. This mask is NIOSH
approved, comfortable to wear, and easy to breathe
through.
It's also very economical, costing as little as 86 cents
per mask.
You can view it at http://www.blogger.com/www.survivetheflu.com/masks.html.

There's another coated mask available now as well. It's the
Triosyn T-3000. If you're looking for a serious mask for
the ultimate protection, and you have deep pockets, then
this is the mask for you. We've tried it out and we've
posted our impressions on our website at
http://www.blogger.com/www.survivetheflu.com/masks.html.

Like most products in America these days, mask manufacturers
rely on China for materials, fabrication, or both. When a
pandemic hits, facemasks will be impossible to obtain. We
strongly suggest stocking up with as many as you can
afford. Not only will they give you and your family some
much needed protection, but you'll have a highly sought
after trading commodity that you will be able to use for
bartering.
========================================

Wishing you a safe and healthy 2006,
Bob & Julie Butler
http://www.blogger.com/www.survivetheflu.com

Team Makeup So Far

The Team has been in existence for a week now. Members include:

OB/GYN MD (overseas)
OB/GYN Nurse
Neonatal Nurse
Manager in the Semiconductor Industry
Church Leader/School Board Member
Preparedness Specialist
Homemaker/Seamstress
Exec Asst to Hospital CEO
Water Engineer
Ham Radio Operator
Government Worker

I've only had one person turn me down, which was a surprise. The rest have said they would be glad to join me.

I've been reading a wonderful article by Grattan Woodson, MD, FACP entitled "Preparing for the Colming INfluenza Pandemic." It has a complete history up to now of how pandemic flu works, with lots of background and statistics. I'll quote a little from his article:

"What makes avian influenza H5N1 so troubling to the medical community? It is its stunning killing ability, a statistc known as the lethality of the disease. The 1918 flu, like most pandemics, infected 40%-50% of the world's pupulation or approximately 640 million persons at the time. If we assume that approximately 80 million people died during the 1918 influenza pandemic, this results in case fatality rate of about 12.5% of those infected. What is so worrisome to the influenza experts at the US CDC and WHO is the case fatality rate for humans that become infected with the strain presently breweng in Southeast Asia has been about 50%."

Here's an article I just read on the Turkey avian flu epidemic among chickens. Note that there is evidence the virus is slowly changing to become more easily transmitted between humans.

Bird Flu Mutation Of Concern, Experts Say
Health Officials Play Down Fear of Pandemic in Turkey
By Daniel Williams and Alan SipressWashington Post Foreign ServiceThursday, January 12, 2006; Page A12

ISTANBUL, Jan. 11 -- Preliminary tests show that the strain of bird flu virus that has stricken at least 15 people in Turkey has evolved in a way that could make it somewhat more hazardous to human beings, although it still lacks the capacity to be passed easily from person to person, international health officials said Wednesday.

The analysis, based on the sequencing of one of the virus's genes, suggests that at least some of the H5N1 bird flu virus here carries a change in one of its proteins, according to Michael L. Perdue of the World Health Organization. That protein is what lets the virus attach to cells and penetrate them.

A Turkish veterinary official in protective gear runs after chickens in the snow-covered city of Van, in far eastern Turkey. (Anatolian News Agency Via Reuters)
Special Report

Track the latest developments in the spread of the deadly H5N1 influenza virus.
• MAP: Bird Flu's Toll PHOTOS• Facts About Bird Flu
» FULL COVERAGE
Photos
Tracking the Deadly Bird Flu

Health experts fear that the virus might develop into a strain that passes easily from human to human, the genesis of the 1918 epidemic that killed tens of millions of people worldwide, as new research has shown.

Focus on Bird Flu
Turkey Criticized Over Bird-Flu Response
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"It's a little concerning because the virus is still trying new things in its evolution," said Perdue, who is overseeing the agency's response to the Turkish outbreak from WHO headquarters in Geneva.

Influenza experts are studying the apparent change to determine its significance, Perdue said. A spokesman for Britain's Medical Research Council, which is involved in the research, said it would take a few days to confirm the preliminary findings.

The experts say they believe the genetic change could make it easier for bird flu to pass from chickens to people. If the virus were to eventually gain the capacity to be passed easily from person to person, it could trigger a global epidemic.

Nancy J. Cox, who heads the influenza branch at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta, said the change was found in one sample of H5N1 isolated from a Turkish child who recently died of the infection. The hemagglutinin protein, which the virus uses to attach to cells of the respiratory tract, had an alteration not usually seen in avian influenza viruses. Other incremental changes in the virus have been seen in China and Vietnam since outbreaks began in 2003.

Experts from the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization warned that the virus could become permanently entrenched in Turkey, thereby increasing its risk to people and the chance it could evolve further. "The highly pathogenic avian influenza virus H5N1 could become endemic in Turkey," the organization said in a statement.

Two deaths have been attributed to bird flu in Turkey. The fatalities were the first outside China and Southeast Asia, areas where a total of 78 people have died in the past two years. More than 100 people have been hospitalized in Turkey with flu symptoms. The patients are under observation as they await test results to reveal whether they suffer from bird flu.

The virus has spread across 30 of Turkey's 81 provinces, from the far east to the Mediterranean coast, and has sparked a frantic effort to stem the disease by killing infected poultry. Even in cosmopolitan Istanbul, bird catchers for the Agriculture Ministry are rounding up fowl raised in the outskirts of the city, gassing them to death and burying them in mass graves.
Perdue noted that the Spanish influenza of 1918, which caused an estimated 40 million deaths worldwide, began as an ordinary bird virus but gradually evolved into a global human killer through a series of these incremental changes.

At a news conference in Ankara, the Turkish capital, international health officials played down fears of a pandemic.

"There is no transmission from human to human so far with a mutation of the virus," said Marc Danzon, WHO's regional director for Europe. "We are not there at the moment, but it is the responsibility for the WHO to look at this. . . . There is no reason to panic."

Bernard Vallat, director of the World Organization for Animal Health, said that the virus was probably introduced in Turkey in October. Vallat said that besides weeding out poultry in infected areas, fowl might have to be vaccinated. "The idea is that you create a protective area around an outbreak through vaccination. This could involve an entire province," he said.

Turkish health workers have killed more than 300,000 domestic birds in roundups across the country since late December. In one district of Istanbul, municipal sanitation officials went door to door in a rural hillside suburb asking residents if they raised chickens and ducks. They chased strays up and down the slippery, muddy hills and ravines, and when they caught one, they stuffed it into a plastic bag. Signs around the neighborhood read, "This District Has Chicken Plague."

Workers dressed in protective gear threw the bags into green containers that looked like large garbage cans. A sanitation worker attached a blue tube from a tank of carbon dioxide to the airtight container, opened the valve and killed the birds. "We prefer to say we are putting them to sleep," said Hikmet Karacay, an Agriculture Ministry official.

Residents, most of whom raised chickens as a sideline to collect the eggs, cooperated. "The real problem is the children," said Gilsen Kaya, who has two daughters. "They like the chickens. They are like pets. That's why it's better to do it at night, when they don't witness the whole thing."

Welcome! Team Members

Tamiflu Works Sometimes

Creating a blog is the best way of letting everyone know what information we have received. Instead of sending out emails all the time, I will update the blog whenever needed and when you each have time you can check and see what we've done lately. Of course, anytime you find something of interest to the Team you'll email me and I'll share via the blog. You can also comment on any post.
______________________________________

This morning I read an article which said that a recent infected girl in Turkey was helped by Tamiflu. My email from Paata in Georgia said that his country was planning on giving the drug to chilren free of charge.

Here's the whole article:

Girl Kisses Chickens, Gets Bird Flu - VAN, Turkey, Jan. 10, 2006

Members of the Kocyigit family mourn for family members who apparently died of bird flu at a cemetery in the eastern Turkish town of Dogubayazit, Tuesday, Jan. 10, 2006. (AP)

At least two other children have died of the same virus in Turkey, and as of Tuesday, 15 people had tested positive for infection in preliminary tests. Many are children.
(AP) Sumeyya Mamuk considered the chickens in her backyard to be beloved pets. The 8-year-old girl fed them, petted them and took care of them. When they started to get sick and die, she hugged them and tenderly kissed them goodbye. The next morning, her face and eyes were swollen and she had a high fever. Her father took her to a hospital, and five days later she was confirmed to have the deadly H5N1 strain of bird flu. "The chickens were sick. One had puffed up and she touched it. We told her not to. She loved chickens a lot," her father, Abdulkerim Mamuk, said of the second youngest of his eight children. "She held them in her arms." Her oldest brother, Sadun, said Sumeyya loved animals and took care of puppies and kittens in Van's Yalim Erez neighborhood. When her mother saw Sumeyya holding one of the dying chickens, she yelled at her and hit the girl to get her away. Sumeyya began to cry. She wiped her tears with the hand she'd been using to comfort the dying chicken. "She wiped her face," said her father, speaking in broken Turkish and wearing a leather jacket and a typical Kurdish headdress in their bright, clean home. "She started to swell. She had a really high fever." Following a few tense days when her family worried if she would recover, Summeya's condition has improved due to quick treatment with the antiviral drug Tamiflu, said Dr. Huseyin Avni Sahin, chief physician at the Van 100th Year Hospital. But at least two other children have died of the same virus in Turkey, and as of Tuesday, 15 people had tested positive for infection in preliminary tests. Many are children. The disease also appears to be spreading. In parts of the world where the virus has been deadly — until now only in East Asia — children like Summeya have been the worst hit. "It was the same in Asia," said Dr. Guenael Rodier, a scientist with the World Health Organization who has been chasing the virus around the world. "It mainly occurred in family clusters of small size, and mainly in children." Even if not animal lovers like Sumeyya, children in poor agricultural towns tend to be extremely comfortable with the animals they share their lives with. It has been particularly difficult to convince them that this proximity can now be dangerous. In Dogubayazit, the Turkish town near the Iranian border where most of the current cases originated, children usually outnumbered workers in trying to round up chickens for culling. Boys and girls led cows and sheep down the main streets. As adult out-of-towners fled from terrifying dogs that snarled from nearly every backyard, little local children giggled. As the H5N1 bird flu virus spreads, scientists monitoring it for fear it could mutate into a form easily transmissible among humans say education on its dangers is crucial to fighting it. Rodier said his organization was considering implementing a program aimed solely at rural children. "It's child behavior," he said. "They play with everything." As for Sumeyya, she is expected to be released from the hospital and join her family and her other pets — dogs, cats and cows — in the next few days. "She's gotten better," Sahin said. "In a few days, she'll be released."